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Illustration from
active bond portfolio management: using
fixed-income derivatives to design hedge
fund type offerings that better fit investors'
needs.
Abstract
In this paper2, we emphasise
the need for the hedge fund industry to
adopt a consumer (investor)-driven approach,
as opposed to the current producer (manager)
perspective, and we call for the emergence
of new types of offering with characteristics
better suited to the needs of institutional
investors. Using active bond portfolio management
as an example, we present evidence that
derivatives can be used by managers not
only for generating and delivering abnormal
performance, but also for packaging such
performance in a form that is consistent
with the modern core-satellite approach
to institutional portfolio management, for
which we explore both a standard static
version and also a dynamic extension allowing
for dissymmetric control of active management
risk.
Introduction
With currently almost US$1 trillion in
assets under management, hedge funds have
seen impressive growth over the past decade
and providers of such investment vehicles
do not lack arguments why investors should
try to gain exposure to hedge funds3.
From an initial phase, where some high net
worth individuals invested in hedge funds,
the industry made it into the mainstream
as more and more institutional investors
have started allocating to, or at least
looking at, hedge funds as a distinct asset
class.
The interest from institutional investors
comes at a time when they try and find solutions
to recover after having been dramatically
affected by downturns in the equity market.
This is especially true for institutions
where declining interest rates have increased
liabilities at the same time as assets were
reduced. These market events, in addition
to questioning the current investment practices
of institutional investors in general, and
pension funds in particular, have put the
emphasis on alternatives to stocks and bonds,
such as hedge funds.
From a conceptual standpoint, hedge funds
are nothing but vehicles that allow investors
to gain an access to the benefits of very
active investment strategies which previously
were only accessible to investment banks
through proprietary trading activities.
Hedge funds can be seen as the ultimate
organisational form for such strategies
since they have a flexible legal structure,
are only lightly regulated, and give strong
incentives for manager performance. This
organisation allows for liberty in investment
decisions such as using derivatives, short
selling and leverage, and investing in illiquid
securities. The most important characteristic
of a hedge fund is probably that the manager
typically does not have to tie his performance
to that of a reference benchmark, such as
a market index or a peer group of managers.
This is a notable difference to most mutual
funds4.
Although the existing literature seems to
concur on the interest of hedge funds as
valuable investment alternatives, because
of the opacity and lack of transparence
of hedge fund strategies, there still remain
a large number of institutional investors
who wonder whether they should invest in
hedge funds, and more importantly, how they
should do it. The classic argument of hedge
fund providers for investing in such structures,
which is the claim that they provide investors
with access to skilled managers, does not
necessarily shed much light on how these
products actually fit investors' needs with
respect to their preferences and liability
constraints.
Generally speaking, institutional investors
have a particularly strong preference for
non-linear payoffs because of the non-linear
nature of the liability constraints they
face (see for example Draper and Shimko
(1993)). This is the case in particular
for institutional investors whose portfolio
value must at all cost exceed a given value,
but thereafter can accept reasonable risks.
From a pragmatic standpoint, taking for
example the case of pension funds, it is
clear that a small change in the probability
of extreme contribution rates is typically
considered much more important than an equal
change in the probability of an extremely
high refund.
In this paper, we emphasise the need for
the hedge fund industry to adopt a consumer
(investor)-driven approach, as opposed to
the current producer (manager) perspective,
and we call for the emergence of new types
of offering with characteristics better
suited to the needs of institutional investors.
Using active bond portfolio management as
an example, we present evidence that derivatives
can be used by hedge fund managers not only
for generating and delivering abnormal performance
(alpha benefits), but also for packaging
such performance in a way that is consistent
with the modern core-satellite approach
to institutional portfolio management. We
also introduce a dynamic extension of this
approach, which leads to a non-linear, dissymmetric
control of tracking error risk, which is
in essence a convenient way to allow investors
to benefit from an option written on hedge
fund managers' skills.
The rest of the paper is organised as follows.
In section 2, we examine the performance
of bond timing strategies, first in a long-only
context and then in an absolute return,
duration-neutral framework. In section 3,
we consider the inclusion of such bond timing
strategies within the context of a core-portfolio
approach. Finally, we present our concluding
remarks in section 4.
Examining the Performance of Bond Timing
Rotation Strategies
A significant part of the expertise of
active bond portfolio managers is the ability
to implement active strategies based on
active views on interest rate changes. If
they think that interest rates will decrease
in level, they will lengthen the duration
of their portfolio so as to optimise capital
gains. On the other hand, if they think
that interest rates will increase in level,
they will shorten the duration of their
portfolio so as to minimise the exposure
of the portfolio to interest rate risk.
There is actually now a consensus in empirical
finance that expected asset returns, and
also variances and covariances, are, to
some extent, predictable. Pioneering work
on the predictability of asset class returns
in the US market was carried out by Keim
and Stambaugh (1986), Campbell (1987), Campbell
and Shiller (1988), Fama and French (1989),
and Ferson and Harvey (1991).
While the performance of tactical style
allocation models is well documented in
equity markets, a sizable body of research
suggests that similar levels of predictability
can be found in bond markets. The literature
on predictability in bond returns has first
focused on timing bonds versus stocks or
bonds versus cash, with no emphasis on the
timing of bonds with different maturities.
Examples of papers on tactical asset allocation
decisions involving bond markets include
Shiller (1979), Shiller, Campbell, and Schoenholtz
(1983), Fama (1981), Fama and Bliss (1987),
Campbell (1987), Campbell and Shiller (1991),
Bekaert, Hodrick, and Marshall (1997), Ilmanen
(1995, 1997), Lekkos and Milas (2001), Baker
et al. (2002), Ilmanen and Sayood (2002),
among others.
In these papers, the focus is on exploiting
predictability in a global bond portfolio
and hence in the level of interest rates,
but do not attempt at exploiting predictability
on other dimensions of the shape of the
yield curve such as slope and curvature.
More recently, researchers have recognised
the benefits of exploiting predictability
in the shape of the yield curve. In a first
attempt, Dolan (1999) argues that the curvature
parameter of the yield curve, estimated
using the Nelson-Siegel model, can be predicted
with simple parsimonious models, and shows
that these forecasts have investment significance
in the selection of bullet over barbell
portfolios. In a related effort, Diebold
and Li (2002) estimate autoregressive models
for predicting Nelson-Siegel (1987) level,
slope and curvature factors, while Fabozzi,
Martellini and Priaulet (2004) test for
the statistical significance in the predictive
power of a series of economically meaningful
variables and find strong evidence of predictability
in changes in the slope of the yield curve
based on such predictive variables.
The use of predetermined variables to predict
asset returns has produced new insights
into asset pricing models, and the literature
on optimal portfolio selection has recognised
that these insights can be exploited to
improve on existing policies based upon
unconditional estimates. For example, Kandel
and Stambaugh (1996) argue that even a low
level of statistical predictability can
generate economic significance and abnormal
returns may be attained even if the market
is successfully timed only 1 out of 100
times. The aim of the present research project
is an attempt to outline the benefits of
bond maturity rotation strategies for European
fixed-income investors. More specifically,
we use in this paper monthly data on the
period 1993-2003 for two European broad-based
bond futures, the Euro Bund and Euro Schatz
futures, and we show how significant out-performance
can be generated from systematic maturity
rotation strategies. We focus on futures
based on short-term (Euro Schatz) and long-term
(Euro Bund) notional contracts, as opposed
to a medium-term notional contract (Euro
Bobl), because it is well known that bond
portfolios with relatively similar duration
are typically very highly correlated (see
for example Martellini, Priaulet and Priaulet
(2003) and predictive models work better
when applied to contrasted asset classes.
Bond indices and futures with different
maturities perform somewhat differently
in different times and economic conditions,
and there is evidence of predictability
in these patterns. Using multi-factor models
for the returns on bond indices, where the
factors are chosen to measure the many dimensions
of financial risks (market, volatility,
credit and liquidity risks), one may be
able to implement a strategy that generates
abnormal return from timing between different
maturity sub-indices (see for example Fabozzi,
Martellini and Priaulet (2004).
Base Case Experiment
In an attempt to assess the performance
of maturity style timer with various levels
of forecast ability, we calculate the profit
generated by investing 100% at the beginning
of each month in the futures contracts (Euro
Bund or Euro Schatz futures) with the highest
return in the following month. More specifically,
we show in exhibit 1 the performance of
a tactical style timer on the sample period
ranging from January 1999 to August 2004.
In this experiment, 100% of the portfolio
are invested in the best performing contract
with various degrees of predictive ability
depicted by hit ratios ranging from 50%
(no predictive ability) to 100% (perfect
timer). In case of a hit ratio lower than
100%, the winning months are drawn randomly
in the sample period. The benchmark is invested
at 50% in each futures contract and theoretically
available cash is invested in the risk-free
rate (EONIA), with rebalancement taking
place at the beginning of each month to
bring the allocation back to neutrality.
As can be seen from the results in exhibit
1, we find that the performance of a style
timer with perfect forecast ability who
has invested 100% of a portfolio at the
beginning of the year in the best performing
style for the year generates an impressive
information ratio equal to 4.97.
Exhibit 1: Performance of a tactical style
timing portfolio on the period ranging from
January 1999 to August 2004. In this experiment,
100% of the portfolio is invested in the
best performing futures contract (Euro Bund
or Euro Schatz futures) with various degrees
of predictive ability depicted by hit ratios
ranging from 50% (no predictive ability)
to 100% (perfect timer). The available cash
is invested in the risk-free rate, the EONIA
in this case. The benchmark is invested
at 50% in each futures contract, with rebalancement
taking place at the beginning of each month
to bring the allocation back to neutrality.
Like the portfolio, the available cash is
also invested in the risk-free rate.
Click the image for an enlarged view
Obviously, the assumption of perfect timing
ability is not realistic. It can be argued
that a realistic performance for a successful
style timer is consistent with a hit ratio
around 70%5. Such a level of
hit ratio allows for a 2.26% excess return
and a 1.83% annual tracking error with respect
to the equally-weighted benchmark, which
results in a good information ratio equal
to 1.23 (see Grinold and Kahn (2000) for
an empirical distribution of information
ratios among active managers).
Robustness Analysis
To test the robustness of the results above,
we have repeated 100 times the experiment
by drawing randomly the successful months,
while maintaining a 70% hit ratio level.
Exhibit 2 below shows the distribution
of overperformance obtained by a style timer,
as we let successful 70% of the months vary
across the 68 months of the sample.
Exhibit 2: this figure shows the distribution
of overperformance obtained by a style timer
exhibiting a 70% hit ratio. The successful
months have been drawn randomly while maintaining
the above-mentioned 70% hit ratio.
Click the image for an enlarged view
As can be seen from exhibit 2, the performance
of the style timer is not a mere artifact
of a particular choice of the winning months
in the sample. This shows the robustness
of abnormal performance that can be generated
by a realistic timing strategy.
Absolute Return Approach
Not only can maturity rotation strategies
be implemented in a long-only context, but
they can also be used to generate absolute
return benefits.
The Base Case
From this perspective, exhibit 3a below
shows the performance of a strategy that
simultaneously implements long-short positions
generated by a style timer producing a 70%
hit ratio. Therefore, a long position in
the future contract that is perceived as
likely to outperform is combined with a
short position in the future contract that
is perceived as likely to underperform while
maintaining a zero-duration.
Four levels of leverage have been tested,
from 1 to 4. In the case of a leverage fixed
at 1 (respectively, 2, 3 and 4), about 100%
of initial capital is invested in cash-equivalent
(EONIA), and long-short positions together
represent a 100% (respectively, 200%, 300%
and 400%) exposure in absolute value6.
Exhibit 3a: Absolute Return Approach. In
this experiment, we focus on a 70% hit ratio,
with long and short positions simultaneously
implemented from January 1999 to August
2004 while maintaining a zero-duration +
100% of initial cash in the risk-free rate
(EONIA).
Click the image for an enlarged view
Exhibit 3a suggests that the benefits of
maturity rotation strategies can be implemented
in an absolute return approach, with a substantial
potential for out-performance, as can be
seen from an excess return with respect
to the EONIA rate. While the out-performance
naturally increases with leverage, the benefits
of maturity rotation strategies are already
obvious even in the context of modest leverage
levels. It should be noted that such out-performance
is generated with very little volatility.
Introducing an Option Overlay Strategy
While active bond portfolio managers can
use futures contracts to implement active
bets on changes in the shape of the yield
curve, options written on these futures
contracts can be used to implement truncated
return strategies that aim at enhancing
the performance and/or at reducing the risk
of a maturity rotation programme by eliminating
the few worst returns of a fund track record.
In what follows, we show that using an option
overlay portfolio can also serve a return
enhancement purpose in trendless periods
of the market cycle, which are typically
difficult market environments for timing
strategies (see Arnott and Miller [1996]).
More specifically, we focus on a suitably
designed type of option strategies that
can be used to enhance the performance of
the absolute return strategy that implements
long/short bets with Euro Schatz and Euro
Bund futures contracts described in the
previous sub-section. The objective is to
design a programme that would consistently
add value during periods of calm markets,
while not significantly impacting the market
timing strategy ability to generate positive
returns during turbulent market environments.
This means that the enhancement programme
must not lose much during the market turbulence
that typically leads to good timing profits.
In what follows we examine the suitability
of embedding option positions written on
Euro Bund futures in a portfolio whose characteristics
should achieve these desired objectives.
Among the range of option strategies that
are appropriate when the underlying price
is expected to change very little over the
life of the options, one of the simplest
is a long call butterfly spread, the "wingspread".
This option strategy consists of three legs
with a total of four options: long one call
with a lower strike (in the money), short
two calls with a middle strike (at the money)
and long one call of a higher strike (out
of the money). All the calls have the same
expiration date, and the middle strike is
halfway between the lower and the higher
strikes. When a butterfly spread is implemented
properly, the potential gains and losses
are usually limited. In our example, we
sell the middle strike (the "body"
of our butterfly) at the end of each month
(last business day) in such a way that it
is equal (or the closest to) the current
price of the underlying7. Simultaneously,
we buy the outer strikes (the "wings"
of the butterfly) as follows:
- Lower strike price = Middle strike
price - 50 bps;
- Higher strike price = Middle strike
price + 50 bps.
All call options have the same 3-month expiry
date. Positions implemented at the end of
month M are systematically closed out at the
end of month M+1, using the settlement prices
as the assumed transaction prices. The quantity
of options (purchased and sold) is computed
so that the additional leverage is equal to
1, knowing that the absolute return strategy
has an initial leverage of 2 (see table 3a),
cash included (initial monies fixed at €10
million). Table 3b reports the results.
Exhibit 3b: Absolute Return Approach with
Option Overlay. The case without options
is identical to the results in Table 3a
for the case of a leverage equal to 2 (70%
hit ratio, with long and short positions
simultaneously implemented from January
1999 to August 2004 while maintaining a
zero-duration + 100% of initial cash in
the risk-free rate). In the case with options,
we add a butterfly spread option overlay
strategy (see body of the text for details).
Click the image for an enlarged view
The benefits of adding an option overlay
strategy can perhaps be best seen from the
fact that the return of the strategy with
the option overlay is greater than the one
without the option overlay in 90% of the
months such that the Bund-Schatz spread
is lower than 1% in absolute value. This
strongly suggests that the option overlay
can indeed enhance the performance of the
underlying maturity rotation strategy when
the latter fails to perform well because
of narrowing spreads.
Introducing a Portable Alpha Strategy
Before the alpha benefits of the absolute
return strategy (with or without options)
can be transported to a portfolio reflecting
an investor's strategic asset allocation
(see next section), further adjustments
need to take place so as to align its exposure
to that of the investor's benchmark. For
the sake of illustration, we consider the
case of an investor with a core position
invested in medium-term maturity bonds,
which for example can be achieved by trading
the Euro Bobl future contract8.
In exhibit 3c, we repeat the same experiment
as in exhibit 3a, except that we add an
additional investment in the Euro Bobl future
contract equivalent to 100% of initial capital,
fully collateralised with EONIA. As a result,
the net exposure of the portfolio with respect
to the bond market is identical to that
of the Euro Bobl future contract, which
is assumed to represent the investor's strategic
bond allocation.
Three levels of leverage have been tested,
from 2 to 5. For example, with a leverage
fixed at 2, about 100% of initial capital
is invested in cash-equivalent (EONIA),
exposure to Euro Bobl notional contract
comes to 100%, and long-short positions
together represent a 100% exposure in absolute
value. Net exposure varies over time in
order to always keep a zero-duration. Positions
are rebalanced monthly.
Exhibit 3c: Absolute Return Approach. In
this experiment, we focus on a 70% hit ratio,
with long and short positions simultaneously
implemented from January 1999 to August
2004 while maintaining a zero-duration +
100% of initial cash in the risk-free rate
(EONIA) + 100% invested in the Euro Bobl
future contract.
Click the image for an enlarged view
The abnormal performance generated from
maturity rotation strategies can be transported
to a core portfolio invested in a broad-based
index (possibly through a derivatives position)
such as a medium-term bond index. This is
what we turn to next.
Enjoying the Benefits of Bond Maturity
Rotation within the Context of a Core-Satellite
Approach
In this section, we show how fixed-income
derivatives can be used in the context of
core-satellite portfolio management.
Introducing the Core-Satellite Approach
to Portfolio Management
Most active managers still have dominant
passive exposure to their benchmark. Instead
of paying high fees on the passively managed
part of their portfolio, the core-satellite
approach suggests to passively invest in
a low-fee index fund (or an enhanced index
product) as a core portfolio and in a variety
of satellite active managers with higher
tracking error. In its purest form, this
approach leads to an investment in market-neutral
managers who provide only portable alpha
benefits without passive exposure to the
index, so that they only compensate active
managers for their abnormal returns, not
for their passive exposure to rewarded sources
of risk.
Let us consider a core-satellite approach
with a single satellite portfolio. The mathematics
of a core-satellite approach is then straightforward.
The overall portfolio corresponds to: P
= wS + (1-w)C, where w is the proportion
invested in the satellite (S), and 1-w is
the fraction invested in the core (C). We
now calculate the tracking error with respect
to a benchmark B. We have: P - B = wS +
(1-w)C - B = w(S - B) + (1 - w)(C - B) If
we now assume that the core portfolio is
perfectly replicating the benchmark, we
have C=B, then we have: P - B = w(S-B)
As a result,
Let us consider the following example.
We assume an investor has a target level
of risk relative to a given benchmark, such
as a 2.5% tracking error budget. Two options
are possible. Either the investor hires
one manager with a tracking error equal
to 2.5% for the entire portfolio, or the
investor forms a passive core portfolio
and leaves 20% in an aggressively managed
satellite with a 12.5% =
tracking error. The latter solution is more
cost-efficient as 80% of the portfolio will
be passively managed in the framework of
a low-cost indexing strategy. The next step
consists of deriving the optimal proportion
w* to invest in the satellite versus core
portfolio. We solve the problem in the context
of a simple mean-variance analysis.
The optimisation programme reads:
Here U denotes the investor's utility function,
which is assumed to be increasing with the
portfolio expected excess return E(P - B)
and decreasing with tracking error
.
The coefficient
denotes the investor's risk-aversion with
respect to tracking error risk. IR(P) is
the information ratio of the portfolio P
with respect to the benchmark, i.e.
We may rewrite the optimization programme
as:
, and the first-order condition reads:

For example, let us assume that the tracking
error of the active fund is 5%, that the
Information Ratio (IR) is 0.5, and that
the coefficient of risk-aversion with respect
to relative risk is = 0.2. Then, the optimal
proportion invested in the active portfolio
is:
The resulting tracking error is
.
This analysis can easily be extended to
the case of a satellite
invested in a number n of active portfolio
managers
according to the proportions .
The excess return on the satellite portfolio
is then
, and the tracking error of the satellite
portfolio reads 
, where
is the covariance between portfolio managers
and ,
and
is the volatility of the benchmark.
One can then find the optimal proportion
invested in each active manager within the
satellite portfolio so as to achieve the
highest possible Information Ratio. One
can show (see for example Scherer (2002)
that the optimal condition is that the ratio
of return to risk contribution is the same
for all managers, which reads:
Using Bond Maturity Rotation Strategies
as Portable Alpha Investment Vehicles
An absolute return version of the bond maturity
timing strategy is perfectly suited for
investors who attempt to use hedge funds
to add portable alpha benefits to their
long-only portfolio without modifying their
passive exposure to a reference index, as
it allows for a separate control on the
tracking error of the satellite and core
portfolios, so as to ensure that the overall
portfolio is consistent with a target level
of deviation with respect to the chosen
benchmark.
In exhibit 4 below, we show the performance
of a core-satellite portfolio approach,
where the core portfolio is passively invested
in medium-term notional contracts (Euro
Bobl future) fully collateralised with EONIA,
and the satellite portfolio is based upon
a timing strategy on the short versus long-term
futures contracts (leverage fixed at 4,
i.e. about 300% (in absolute value) in long
and short positions in order to keep a zero-duration
at any time + 100% invested in cash- equivalent
(EONIA) + 100% invested in Euro Bobl future
contracts). With regard to the satellite
portfolio, we focus on the realistic case
of a 70% hit ratio.
Several experiments have been performed
with an allocation to the satellite portfolio
ranging from 10% to 30%. Results obtained
through these experiments demonstrate that
the alpha benefits can be successfully transported
to a core portfolio reflecting the strategic
asset allocation of the investor.
Exhibit 4: Core-Satellite Portfolio Management.
This table shows the performance of a global
core +satellite portfolio, where the core
is passively invested in the Euro Bobl futures
+ EONIA, while the satellite is an active
portfolio implementing a maturity rotation
strategy (absolute return version with a
70% hit ratio).
Click the image for an enlarged view
This analysis strongly suggests that bond
derivatives can be used to implement a very
broad and thorough set of bond portfolio
strategies: not only they can be used by
investors to create diversified core positions
around which they can add value, but also,
as argued in the previous section, they
can be used by investors to implement their
(satellite) active portfolio strategy.
In what follows, we extend the core-satellite
approach to a dynamic context, where we
let the proportion invested in the active
portfolio vary as a function of the current
outperformance of the global portfolio with
respect to the benchmark.
Using Bond Maturity Rotation Strategies
in the Context of Dynamic Core-Portfolio
Management
Tracking error is not necessarily bad. Just
like with good and bad cholesterol, there
is a "good" tracking error, which
refers to overperformance of the portfolio
with respect to the benchmark, and a "bad"
tracking error, which refers to underperformance
with respect to the benchmark. By severely
restricting the amounts invested in active
strategies as a result of tight tracking
error constraints, investors obviously miss
an opportunity for significant outperformance.
In this section, we use a new methodology
introduced by Amenc, Malaise and Martellini
(2004) that allows investors to gain full
access to good tracking error, while maintaining
the level of bad tracking error at a reasonable
threshold, based on an optimal dynamic adjustment
of the proportions of total wealth invested
in core versus satellite portfolios. This
method can be regarded as a natural extension
to a relative return context of constant
proportion portfolio insurance techniques
(CPPI), originally designed to ensure the
respect of absolute performance.
In other words, the traditional CPPI technique,
designed to ensure absolute risk management,
still applies in a benchmarked portfolio
management process, provided that the risky
asset is reinterpreted as the satellite
portfolio, which contains relative risk
with respect to the benchmark, and the risk-free
asset is re-interpreted as the core portfolio,
which contains no relative risk with respect
to the benchmark.
The method leads to an increase in the
proportion allocated to the satellite when
the satellite has outperformed the benchmark.
Indeed such an accumulation of past out-performance
has resulted in an increase in the cushion,
and therefore in the potential for a more
aggressive (and hence higher tracking error)
strategy in the future. If on the other
hand the satellite has under-performed with
respect to the benchmark, the method leads
to a tighter tracking error strategy (through
a decrease of the proportion invested in
the satellite portfolio) in an attempt to
ensure the guarantee of the relative performance
objective. Consistent with the spirit of
the CPPI approach, the methodology recommends
to take the investment in the satellite
(risky asset in a relative risk context)
to be a constant number, m, called the multiplier,
multiplied by the cushion, defined by the
difference between the portfolio value and
a floor value, while the remaining part
of the portfolio is invested in the benchmark
(risk-free asset in a relative risk context).
The floor is in turn defined as a percentage
of the benchmark portfolio value (see Amenc,
Malaise and Martellini (2004) for more details)
that can be regarded as the relative protection
level.
This approach allows for dissymmetric management
of tracking error, ensuring that the underperformance
of the portfolio with respect to the benchmark
will be limited to a given level, while
letting the investor gain fuller access
to excess returns potentially generated
by the active portfolio. This can be measured
in terms of the difference of ratio of an
upside information ratio (defined as the
volatility of excess return of the portfolio
conditional on out-performance) and a downside
information ratio (similar to downside risk:
volatility of excess return of the portfolio
over the benchmarks conditional on under-performance)
- see exhibit 5.
Note that what follows cannot be achieved
using traditional active managers. This
is because an institutional investor cannot
easily and economically terminate, increase
or decrease the size of positions in a given
manager. On the other hand, this can easily
be done with futures. Another major benefit
of futures in the context of dynamic asset
allocation decisions is liquidity. Whenever
the institutional investor needs to change
the allocation to the core versus the satellite,
it can do so very easily. That is much more
difficult with traditional active asset
management.
Exhibit 5 below contains the results of
the experiment in the case of a guarantee
equal to 95% of the benchmark's performance
and an active portfolio invested in a maturity
rotation strategy with a hit ratio equal
to 70%. Assuming that €100 million
are initially invested in the strategy,
we have tested 4 different values for the
multiplier m (m=2, 3, 4 or 5). The higher
the multiplier, the more the investor will
participate in a sustained relative increase
in satellite versus core portfolio value.
On the other hand, the higher the multiplier
the faster the portfolio value will approach
the floor in case of a sustained relative
decrease in satellite versus core portfolio
value. As the cushion approaches zero, exposure
to the satellite is also converging to zero,
which in principle (i.e., in continuous-time)
prevents the portfolio value from ever breaching
the floor value. In practice, however, because
of discrete trading, the portfolio value
can fall below the floor value in case of
a sharp decrease in relative value before
the investor has a chance to trade. As a
result of this analysis, it appears that
the optimal multiplier value should be a
decreasing function of the relative risk
of the satellite versus the core (i.e. the
propensity for the satellite to severely
underperform the benchmark) and an increasing
function of trading frequency.
Exhibit 5: Performance of relative return
CPPI. This table shows the result of the
experiment in the case of a guarantee equal
to 95% of the benchmark's performance and
an active portfolio invested in a maturity
rotation strategy with a hit ratio reaching
70%. We assume that €100 million are
initially invested in the strategy. We have
tested 4 different values for the multiplier
m (m=2, 3, 4 or 5). We present in line 7
the annualised excess return with respect
to the benchmark passively invested in the
Euro Bobl future contracts (+ available
cash invested in the risk-free rate). In
lines 12 and 13 we show the upside information
ratio and the downside information ratio.
Click the image for an enlarged view
The performance of this method can perhaps
be best understood by noting that the "ratio
of information ratios" (upside IR divided
by downside IR given in absolute value)
is significantly higher than 1. This result
suggests that good tracking error has been
efficiently captured while the level of
bad tracking error has been maintained at
a reasonable threshold.
Conclusion
Although the existing literature seems
to concur on the interest of hedge funds
as valuable investment alternatives, because
of the opacity and lack of transparence
of hedge fund strategies, there still remain
a large number of institutional investors
who wonder whether they should invest in
hedge funds, and more importantly, how they
should do it.
In this paper, we emphasise the fact that
more meaningful hedge fund solutions can
be designed, based on the recognition that
the marketing and packaging of alpha is
as important to investors as the delivery
of alpha. In particular, as the hedge fund
industry is preparing to welcome the wave
of institutional money management, it will
have to develop different products designed
to meet different investors' needs on the
basis of a given alpha generation process.
More specifically, we present a series
of illustrations in a fixed-income environments
suggesting that futures and options can
be employed towards the design of products,
allowing for the transformation of raw alpha
into portable alpha, which can be used within
the context of a modern core-satellite approach
to portfolio management. Institutional investors
may find a dynamic, non-linear version of
this approach particularly appealing as
it allows them to benefit from a dissymmetric
control of tracking error risk and higher
access to the potential benefits of abnormal
returns generated by hedge funds without
all the associated risks.
Footnotes
1. This paper first appeared
on www.edhec-risk.com.
2. This research is sponsored
by Eurex.
3. According to the
2004 Alternative Fund Service Review Survey,
as reported in the weekly publication International
Fund Investment, issue 116, May 17th, 2004.
4. It should however
be noted that absolute return benchmarks
(such as risk-free rate plus x basis points)
are typically used. Furthermore, benchmarking
of hedge fund returns though peer grouping
is becoming more and more common practice.
5. For example, in
the case of 68 observations (i.e., monthly
observations between January 1999 and August
2004), a hit ratio of at least 70% is significantly
greater than ½ at the 0.5% level.
6. Net exposure varies
over time in order to always keep a zero-duration.
Positions are rebalanced monthly.
7. First position
initiated at the beginning of January 1999
8. The same approach
can be adopted to transport the alpha benefits
of the bond maturity rotation strategy to
any benchmark portfolio, consisting of either
stock and/or bond allocation.
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