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Short selling on the world's equity market is under fire
once more, and hedge funds have found themselves in the front
line. The charges are simple: probably simplistic. Markets
have taken some sudden downward lurches; shares fall when
there are more buyers than sellers, so short selling must
be exaggerating the size of the falls. Hedge funds are short
sellers. Round up the usual suspects. The sniping has not
been restricted to hedge funds, the proprietary trading desks
of the big investment banks have also come under fire. Many
of the attacks on equity long/short hedge funds have come
from politicians whose constituents have seen their investments
eroded by the falls in stock markets, and who want someone
to blame.
Hans Eichel, Germany's finance minister, has branded hedge
funds a threat to financial stability and earlier this year
called for a temporary ban on short selling. Such political
tirades are not new. In the Asian crisis of 1997, when Malaysia's
currency was being savaged, the country's Prime Minister,
Mahathir Mohamad, saw the hand of George Soros, who profited
heavily when sterling was devalued in 1992. Mahathir declared
that hedge fund managers were the "highwaymen of the
global economy." Soros was once again demonised in Hong
Kong in 1998 when the local dollar peg against the US dollar
appeared to be crumbling, forcing the government into massive
and controversial stock market intervention. Being slapped
around by politicians is nothing new for hedge funds, but
what probably hurts more is that some of the attacks now being
mounted come from within the financial community. Blaming
hedge funds for poor market conditions is being seen by some
as a smoke-screen laid down by conventional fund managers
to hide their own shortcomings. Despite the accusations, the
assaults on hedge funds appear to have been backed with little
hard evidence.
A keen UK follower of the development of the funds, Professor
Harry Kat, Associate Professor of Finance at the University
of Reading, says, "Since the effect of hedge funds on
stock market volatility is quite a new subject I do not know
anybody who has taken a serious look at it." He concludes
that the hostility is just the latest example of a demonisation
by the ignorant of one sector of the market place. "People
look for a scapegoat because they don't understand what is
going on any more," he says. After examining the charges
against hedge funds, Swiss-based investment bankers UBS Warburg
declared them not guilty in a July research report titled
Peaches, lemons and sour grapes. "As global equity falls
accelerated in June and early July the voices against hedge
funds grew louder and more numerous. They did not, in our
view grow any more informed, enlightened or intelligent, "
countered analysts Alexander Iniechen and Jen Johansen. UBS
points out that, rather than cleaning up by short selling,
most hedge funds suffered a horrible month in June. July was
little better. Although the slump in major markets would appear
to have provided perfect conditions for hedge funds to make
big money out of short plays, they were generally in the red.
The ABN AMRO EurekaHedge Asian index lost 1.1% over the month,
and the Japan index fell 0.3%. Long funds, however, did much
worse. According to the UBS report, the simple reason for
the falls in the market is selling by the majority of market
participants, which massively outweighed any hedge fund actions.
By UBS' calculations, hedge funds accounted for only US$600
billion of the total US$20 trillion to US$30 trillion under
global management, a figure that would suggest that their
influence on the market is being exaggerated. For Asia, EurekaHedge's
figures suggest that of the $17 billion in Asian-centred funds,
only 30-40%, or $7 billion, are short sales. That's hardly
enough to have a significant impact on the cash markets. In
the US however, hedge funds are energetic players of derivative
instruments, which can move the main markets. According to
reports from the US, hedge funds account for as much as 50%
of the S&P futures transactions on the Chicago Board of
Options Exchange, more than double the figure of a year ago.
Defenders of hedge funds, and their ability to short, point
out that not all those contracts were one way. Hedge funds
and other users of short selling strategies, reduce volatility.
Recent one-day swings on Wall Street may have been spectacular,
but they never reached anything like the daily shifts seen
in 1987; and the growth of short selling has been a key a
factor in ironing out the swings, say hedge fund supporters.
Barry Eichengreen, a former policy advisor to the International
Monetary Fund, and Professor of Economics and Political Science
at the University of California warns that restrictions could
do more harm than good. "Hedge funds could help break
the free fall that can afflict oversold markets, including
currencies", he concluded. "When the shorts decide
to cover, their buying can provide a floor to the market,
and even out intra-day swings." So far the recent attacks
on short selling by hedge funds and other players in Asia
have been muted. The exception was Japan. In February, Japan's
powerful Financial Supervisory Agency introduced the uptick
rule in an attempt to cut the alleged impact of short selling
on the Nikkei 225 index. Players would be able to short a
stock only at a price above that currently prevailing in the
market. This move was regarded as a market support operation,
but was aimed both at hedge funds and the proprietary trading
desks of bulge bracket investment houses, and has been followed
up by harsh disciplinary action against some of the biggest
names in investment banking who broke the rules. Rather than
lashing out at hedge funds for unsettling markets, some Asian
jurisdictions are leading the way in widening the market for
hedge funds. Both Hong Kong and Singapore, which have strict
rules on short selling, are in the process of registering
hedge funds for retail sale. Some market regulators are resisting
calls for clamps on short selling by hedge funds, or any other
institutions.
Sir Howard Davies, chairman of the UK's Financial Services
Authority has dismissed suggestions of a ban. Short selling
was "a necessary and desirable underpinning to the liquidity
of the London market". The benefits of short selling
are too strong for any serious curtailment, but arguments
for greater transparency of short positions are growing stronger.
While some hedge fund managers express concern that this would
cramp their style, a greater ability for the authorities to
see who is really playing fast and loose with their markets
could take the heat off.
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